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  BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy and US Bond Strategy services conclude that investors should maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration in US fixed income portfolios.   According to their anticipated…
  The global manufacturing recovery accelerated in May with the Markit Global Manufacturing PMI inching up to an 11-year high of 56. The stronger headline number partially reflects an increase in the pace of new orders to 57.3 from…
  Consumer prices accelerated in the Euro Area in May. The headline consumer price index rose to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% y/y in April. Although the May figure is above the ECB’s target “of below 2%”, the central bank…
Special Report Highlights The Fed: The Fed will formally discuss tapering plans over the course of this summer and fall and announce the slowing of asset purchases before the end of 2021. Its labor market objectives will also be achieved in time to…
Special Report Highlights House prices are rising rapidly across the developed markets, in response to the extraordinary monetary and fiscal policy stimulus implemented to fight the pandemic. Evidence points to the house price surge being driven by…
Highlights President Biden has called for the US intelligence community to investigate the origins of COVID-19 and one of Biden’s top diplomats has stated the obvious: the era of “engagement” with China is over. This…
Highlights Domestic and foreign supply-side constraints are now exerting a significant effect on the US economy. Consumer prices may increase at a faster pace than we initially expected over the coming 3-4 months, but supply-side…
  As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left policy unchanged at its Wednesday meeting. Instead, the central bank sounded more optimistic about the economic outlook. Most notably, it reintroduced projections for the official…
  US bond yields have fallen somewhat in recent days. The 10-year Treasury yield is back below 1.6%, well off its early-April peak of 1.73%.    Falling bond yields are difficult to square with all the talk of spiking…
Special Report Highlights We update our assumptions for the likely 10-15 year return for a wide range of different asset classes. Our methodology is basically unchanged from our last Return Assumptions report published in 2019, though we have…