BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service is downgrading TIPS from overweight to neutral. There are two reasons for this downgrade. First, long-maturity breakevens are consistent with the Fed’s target…
Highlights Chart 1Inflation Pressures Building As expected, base effects kicked in and pushed 12-month core PCE inflation from 1.37% to 1.83% in March. But a favorable comparison to last year’s depressed price level…
Highlights Sweden’s economic recovery is robust and will deepen. Policy is accommodative. Very few advanced economies will benefit as much from the global economic rebound. The labor market will tighten, capacity utilization…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service recently downgraded EM sovereign and corporate credit to underweight relative to US corporate credit over a tactical investment horizon. For EM sovereign issuers,…
Highlights Developed economies continue to transition towards a post-pandemic state. Europe has further to go, but it is lagging the US at a constant rate and is thus merely delayed – not on a different path. This ongoing…
Highlights Clients countered our opinion that China’s economy has reached its cyclical peak. However, we have already incorporated the supporting facts into our analysis so they will not alter our cyclical outlook for the economy…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service increased their recommended allocation for euro area high-yield to overweight. Since March of last year, the team has maintained an overweight stance on US high-yield…
Highlights Duration: Foreign inflows and dollar strength may give us a reason to turn bullish on US bonds at some point in the future, but not yet. For now, investor sentiment toward the dollar is more consistent with rising US bond…