Dear Client From March 18 I will be writing under a new product title, the BCA Research Counterpoint. The aim of the Counterpoint is to generate a high volume of investment opportunities that are unconnected to the business cycle and run…
The 5-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate – the difference between the 5-year nominal US Treasury yield and the 5-year TIPS yield – is a measure of the market’s expectation for CPI inflation over the next five…
Highlights Rising Global Yields: The increased turbulence in global bond markets is part of the adjustment process to a more positive outlook for global economic growth. Rising real yields are now the main driver of nominal yield…
Highlights Chart 1Back To Fair Value February was a terrible month for the bond market. In fact, the Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Master Index returned -1.8%, its worst month since November 2016. The 5-year/5-year forward…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service concludes that the recent increase in real yields could put further downward pressure on equity prices in the near term. Bond yields have jumped in recent weeks. After…
Dear Client, In addition to this week’s abbreviated report, we are sending you a Special Report on Bitcoin. I don’t recommend you buy it. Best regards, Peter Berezin Highlights Real government bond yields have…
Highlights Higher yields in China should continue to encourage inflows into the RMB. However, the gap between Chinese and US/global interest rates will narrow. This will temper the pace of RMB appreciation. The RMB remains modestly…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that there are many similarities between the current US macro picture and the late 1960s. In the late 1960s, US inflation was subdued, and interest rates were…