The forthcoming third round of enormous US fiscal stimulus will likely mark a structural regime shift in global financial markets. Over the past 25 years, the chief concern of US and, hence, global financial markets, has been economic…
Highlights Inflation: Additional fiscal stimulus will lead to higher inflation in the goods sector, where bottlenecks are already forming. But stronger services inflation is required (particularly in shelter) before broad price…
Demand for mortgages in the US remains strong. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 16.7% in the week ending January 8, 2021 bringing mortgage applications to their highest level since March 2020, and October 2012 before that…
Yesterday, Matteo Renzi pulled out of the center-left coalition currently governing Italy. The former PM believes he can improve his party’s standing in parliament. The Conte government will try to create a new…
Highlights The incidents of state-owned enterprise (SOE) bond defaults late last year reflected deteriorating corporate balance sheets and exposed local governments’ weakening fiscal positions. Both were preexisting conditions…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, the odds of a major US fiscal spending boost from the incoming Biden Administration, both in the short-run and over the medium term, are now much higher…
BCA Research’s time-tested indicators are sending bearish warnings for bonds. The BCA Cyclical Bond Indicator is rising quickly and has crossed over the signal line, which indicates that yields have significantly more…