Much of the cyclical outlook for yields hinges on the outlook for inflation. For now, global core CPI continues to linger toward its nadir. However, important indicators suggest that it is set to trend higher in the coming…
Highlights US Reflation: The Georgia senate victories for the Democratic Party have returned the bond-bearish “Blue Sweep” scenarios to the forefront. More fiscal stimulus and an easy Fed will extend the policy-driven…
Highlights Rates: The Democratic sweep of the election has caused the uptrend in bond yields to accelerate and has benefited our recommended rates positions (below-benchmark duration, nominal and real curve steepeners, inflation curve…
Highlights Markets largely ignored the uproar at the US Capitol on January 6 because the transfer of power was not in question. Democratic control over the Senate, after two upsets in the Georgia runoff, is the bigger signal. US…
Highlights 2021 Model Bond Portfolio Broad Allocations: Translating our 2021 global fixed income Key Views into recommended positioning within our model bond portfolio results in the following conclusions: target a relatively…
Highlights Chart 12020 Returns After a tumultuous start to the year, corporate bonds rallied in 2020 H2, managing to eke out small annual gains versus Treasuries. Specifically, investment grade corporates outperformed…
The reflation trade remained the dominant theme for markets this December. The dollar suffered the largest negative abnormal returns of all the major asset classes while EM equities and gold offered the strongest risk-adjusted…