Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on Thursday, December…
Dear Client, Next week I will be presenting our 2021 outlook on China at our last webcasts of the year "China 2021 Key Views: Shifting Gears In The New Decade". The webcasts will take place next Wednesday, December 16 at…
Over the past two years, the performance of EAFE equities relative to the US has tightly followed real bond yields. This is because both the relative performance of foreign equities and real interest rates are extremely…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the climbing CRB Raw Industrials / Gold ratio is paving the way for higher US 10-year Treasury yields. November’s employment report was the worst since April,…
Highlights Chart 1Bond Yields & The CRB/Gold Ratio In our last report of November, we noted that the rising COVID case count was likely to lead to a challenging few months for the US economy, but we also questioned…
Highlights Every year we review our best and worst calls – both in terms of geopolitics and markets. This year our geopolitical forecasting and strategic market recommendations performed well, given the COVID-19 shock, but our…
Our semi-annual virtual meeting with the long-standing client Ms. Mea took place on December 1. Given it is the end of the year, Ms. Mea inquired about our strategies for 2021 and reviewed the evolution of our views during 2020. Below is…
Highlights Don’t trust market inflation expectations or real interest rates. When inflation is near-zero, think in nominal terms not in real terms. New structural recommendation: Underweight inflation protected bonds versus…
While the near-term inflation risk is limited, various forces point toward expanding odds of higher long-term inflation. The broadening preference among the population toward greater government involvement in the economy suggests…
Although the onshore corporate bond market is under stress, BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that it will not be the force that buckles Chinese equities. Recent bond payment defaults by several…