Highlights The stock market’s 60 percent rally since mid-March is reaching a near-term valuation test. Sell stocks and wait on the side lines if the 10-year T-bond yield rises by 0.3 percent. Go aggressively overweight T-bonds…
BCA Research's Global Fixed Income Strategy service recently highlighted that an increasing number of central banks have raised concerns about unwanted currency appreciation. On the surface, more US dollar weakness…
Highlights COVID-19: Markets are trading off the longer-term positive news on COVID-19 vaccines, rather than the shorter-term negative news of surging numbers of new virus cases in Europe and North America. This will continue as long…
Highlights The vaccine promises an eventual return to “normal” life – just as Americans voted to “return to normalcy.” Markets are cheering and hinting at an eventual rotation into value stocks. The…
Highlights US inflation expectations will moderate, and US real yields will rise. This will support the US dollar. The potential rebound in the US dollar will cap any upside in EM ex-TMT stocks. Rising US real yields are a risk to…
Highlights US Election & COVID-19: Joe Biden’s apparent victory in the US presidential race, as well as the announcement of a potential successful COVID-19 vaccine trial, are both bond-bearish outcomes. This is especially so…
Yesterday, Christine Lagarde provided a clear signal that vaccine optimism would not prevent the ECB from easing further in December, reinforcing the message that she gave at the last ECB meeting: that the central bank would…
Joe Biden’s election victory and the potential COVID-19 vaccine have not led BCA Research's Global Fixed Income Strategy team to make any changes to their main fixed income investment recommendations. The existing…
BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service concludes that a moderate bear-steepening of the Treasury curve remains the most likely outcome for the next 6-to-12 months. Of course, the outlook is somewhat clouded by the fact…
Highlights Economy: The Democrats did not sweep the US election, but the Democratic House and Republican Senate will likely find some middle ground on a stimulus deal. This will keep the economic recovery on track. A highly effective…