BCA Research's Global Fixed Income Strategy & US Bond Strategy services estimate that the combined probability of scenarios that will put upward pressure on US Treasury yields is 80%, versus a 20% probability of a more…
In our monthly editorial meeting yesterday morning, BCA Research editors discussed the outlook for yields. We agreed that many cyclical forces point toward higher interest rates. The economy is proving surprisingly resilient, the…
Among value-oriented investors, the concept of a “margin of safety” is well known. In essence, a margin of safety approach focuses on capital preservation rather than outsized return potential, and espouses investing…
According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, municipal bonds offer exceptional value relative to both US Treasuries and corporate credit. Moreover, rising odds of a blue sweep make state & local government fiscal…
Highlights Our model suggests that more rate hikes are ahead in 2021; we project a less than 50bps increase in the PBoC policy rate from the current level. Chinese stock prices positively correlate with interest rates and bond yields…
The German ZEW survey was a disappointment in October. While the Current Situation component improved a little bit in both Germany and the Eurozone, the Expectations component declined. This dichotomy was replicated in the UK,…
Highlights Duration: Prospects for more pre-election fiscal stimulus are slim. But with the Democrats gaining ground in the polls, the bond market will stay focused on rising odds of a blue sweep election and greater fiscal stimulus in…
Highlights Does it still make sense to use historical yield betas for fixed income country allocation? Yes, favoring countries with higher government bond yield betas when global yields are falling, and vice versa, is still an…