Highlights Both public opinion polls and betting markets suggest that Joe Biden will become President, with the Democrats gaining control of the Senate and retaining the House of Representatives. Such a “blue wave” would…
Correlations across asset classes move higher in times of crisis. 2020 proved no exception to this rule, which is problematic as it makes diversification more difficult to achieve exactly when investors need it most. The good…
Highlights US market risks stem from both the lack of fiscal stimulus before the new president assumes office in late January. Risk-off moves in US financial markets will weigh on EM. China’s stimulus has peaked and the country…
Highlights Long-term investors who can tolerate volatility should buy SEK/USD for a potential 20 percent upside. Short-term investors who cannot tolerate volatility should buy CHF/USD. The dollar’s short-term moves are a…
In the Tuesday morning session of our BCA Research Annual investment Conference, Professor Larry Summers mentioned that the disconnect between stock prices and economic activity was a consequence of Secular Stagnation. Secular…
Dear Client, Next week I will present our outlook on China’s economic recovery, the direction of economic policy and financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond in two live webcasts. The webcasts will take place next…
BCA Research's Global Fixed Income Strategy service still prefers keeping aggregate portfolio duration close to benchmark, with only a moderate overweight allocation to spread product versus government bonds. Instead,…
Highlights Q3/2020 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed the custom benchmark by +19bps during the third quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The government bond side of the portfolio…
Highlights Chart 1Spending Held Up In August The bulk of the CARES act’s income support provisions expired at the end of July and Congress has still not reached consensus on a follow-up package. Unsurprisingly,…
In recent days, Treasury yields have moved up nearly 15bps. Commentators are openly wondering about the cause of this move. The notion that following last week’s debate, the probability of Blue Wave (where the Democrats…