Highlights Portfolio Strategy Buybacks are down but not out. While financials have been weighing heavily on the S&P buybacks index, we would not write off the artificial engineering of higher EPS via equity retirement, especially…
Highlights Misunderstanding 1: The danger of Covid-19 is its short-term mortality rate. In fact, the danger of Covid-19 is its long-term mortality and morbidity rate. Misunderstanding 2: The government-imposed lockdown causes the…
BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service ponders whether it is possible for the default rate to fall to 5% during the next 12 months. Historically, the default rate tends to fall very quickly when the economy is coming out…
Highlights Near-Term Uncertainties: Investors have grown a bit more nervous in recent weeks, amid signs of a second wave of the coronavirus in Europe and with the contentious US presidential election only five weeks away. The pro-…
Highlights Treasuries: Bond yields held steady in September, even as the stock market sold off sharply. This leads us to conclude that long-maturity Treasury yields have room to fall in the near-term if progress towards a fiscal…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Quarterly Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond. We will also be hosting a webcast…
Highlights Most sentiment and technical indicators suggest the dollar is undergoing a countertrend bounce rather than entering a new bull market. However, the internal dynamics of financial markets remain short-term constructive for…
Highlights While we are bearish on the US dollar in the long run, the greenback is primed for a rebound in the near term. Consistently, commodities prices will relapse and EM currencies will depreciate versus the US dollar. Global…
Highlights The global recovery has legs, but it will follow a stop-and-go pattern. Global fiscal policy will ultimately remain loose enough to create an appropriate counterweight to three major risks. Risk assets are still attractive…
Highlights Bank credit 6-month impulses are plunging, and the pandemic is resurging. Maintain an overweight to growth defensives (technology and healthcare). In the short term, profits will be more resilient in a resurgent pandemic.…