BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service believes that the 30-year bond yield is the driving variable in financial markets right now. The relative performance of banks has closely tracked the collapse in the 30-…
Please note that we will be on our summer holidays next week. Our next report will come out on August 20. Highlights The 30-year bond yield is the puppet master pulling the strings of all other investments. Where 30-year bond…
Highlights A buildup in industrial inventory may temporarily slow down China’s commodity imports over the next month or two. Last week’s Politburo meeting stated that policy supports will remain in place for 2H20, despite a…
BCA Research's Global Fixed Income Strategy service concludes that the growing divide between falling negative real bond yields and rising inflation expectations in major developed economies may be a sign of investors pricing…
Highlights Global Bond Yields: The growing divide between falling negative real bond yields and rising inflation expectations in the US and other major developed economies may be a sign of investors pricing in slower long-run potential…
Highlights Chart 1How Much Lower For Real Yields? Treasury yields moved lower last month even as the overall bond market priced-in a more reflationary economic environment. Spread product outperformed Treasuries and…
Markets have shrugged off the rise in COVID-19 cases in the US and new clusters in other places such as Spain, Hong Kong, Melbourne, and Tokyo (Chart 1). The MSCI All-Country World Index is now only 4% off its all-time high in…
BCA Research's Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends investors underweight German, French, the British, Swedish and Japanese sovereign markets versus the US in USD-hedged portfolios, because both their unhedged and…
Highlights US Dollar: The overvalued US dollar is finally cracking under the weight of aggressive Fed policy reflation and non-US growth outperformance coming out of the COVID-19 recession. The US dollar weakness has more room to run,…