The unwind of 2020–21 froth is stressing floating-rate credit, with weak structures now meeting tighter funding. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Brian Payne, Chief Strategist for our Private Markets & Alternatives (PMA) service…
Recent Canadian data confirm slowing growth, reinforcing support for government bonds and steepeners. The October CFIB Business Barometer fell to 46.3 from 50.2, indicating contraction and underscoring the risk posed by small…
Our GeoMacro strategists remain overweight equities and bonds for now but warn that markets will soon test their “melt-up” thesis, as the cycle transitions from cash- to leverage-driven growth. The dominant theme of 2025 is not AI,…
Cross-asset volatility fell in recent weeks, with lower rates volatility supporting risk assets. The MOVE index, which tracks implied USD rates volatility, recently dropped to its 20th percentile before rebounding. This decline…
Treasury yields are generally following the pattern of past interest rate cycles, but with a larger term premium keeping the curve steeper than usual.
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
Japanese markets reacted sharply to Sanae Takaichi’s election as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the frontrunner to become Japan’s next Prime Minister. The Nikkei surged 4.8% and the yen plunged nearly 2% across…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2025.
Our DM strategists recommend regional bond overweights in the UK, Canada, and Sweden, and express policy divergence through tactical FX trades: long USD, underweight GBP and SEK, and long JPY vs. EUR. Most G10 central banks are…