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Fixed Income

US Consumers See Increased Risks Of Stagflation
The preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 67.8 from 71.1 in January. The decrease came from both expectations and the assessment of current conditions. Measures of 1-year and 5-10 year inflation…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Jobs Report Shows Resilient Labor Market
The January US jobs report was solid, reflecting a healthy labor market. Payrolls rose by less than expected at 143k, down from an upwardly-revised 307k in December, leaving the 3-month moving average at 237k. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.0%…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Talking Down The 10-Year

Some thoughts on this morning's employment data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent attempts to talk down the 10-year Treasury yield.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
ISM Services PMI Reassures Markets On Inflation
The January ISM Services missed estimates, decreasing to 52.8 from 54.0 in December. The move was driven by activity components, while employment and suppliers’ delivery times increased. Additionally, the prices paid measure decreased, reversing the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tariffs Aren’t The Real Threat For The Bond Market

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Fed And Tariffs
Trade tensions muddy the outlook for global central banks. The 2010s were an era of low growth and low inflation that called for easy monetary policy. The post-COVID era has been marked by overheating and high inflation calling for tight policy. The second…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Gold: Bet On Momentum
While the US dollar has outperformed every single DM currency in the past few months, the only monetary asset it did not outperform is gold. The greenback is up between 5-10% against DM currencies since September of last year, but down by more than 8% vs.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Argentina: Is The Hype Real?

Argentina is entering a regime shift from the traditional short boom-bust cycles of the past 50 years. Profound structural reforms will result in a productivity boom, leading to a more durable economic expansion while keeping with the disinflation trend. Authorities will likely lift capital and currency controls in the second quarter of this year. All in all, odds are that Argentinian assets have entered a multi-year bull market.

Emerging Markets Strategy, GeoMacro Strategy by Juan Egana
Do Growth Stocks Even Care About Macro?
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist of our Emerging Markets and China Investment Strategy services. Arthur highlights an important dichotomy in the US stock-bond yield correlation. In the past 12 months, US growth stocks…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Economic Roundup

Core PCE inflation came in soft this morning and is tracking well below the Fed’s 2025 forecast. We highlight three upside risks to inflation and preview next week’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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