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Fixed Income

How Bessenomics Was Born

There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have put the pieces of the puzzle together to help clients see the big picture. This report presents our take on a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Scott Bessent that led to the latter’s appointment as Treasury secretary.

BCA Special Reports, Emerging Markets Strategy, GeoMacro Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Lessons From Trump 1.0
We look at President Trump’s first mandate for lessons on how markets would likely react to different policies. On the fiscal front, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the first pro-cyclical stimulus in decades. Markets pushed back, as the early 2018…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Rates: More On Value And Timing
Our US Bond Strategy team put out a Strategy Insight outlining the value they see in the Treasury market.  The recent rise in Treasury yields reflects increased inflation uncertainty and a higher term premium. Treasury yields now offer an attractive…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trump Day One: Threats And Opportunities For Europe

President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Is Good News Becoming Bad News Again?
Two main market events defined 2024, highlighting how assets will react to economic data on the tactical horizon. The August 2024 selloff marked a positive shift in the stock-bond yield correlation, as higher odds of a “hard landing” were priced in, after…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
CPI Cools, But Short-Term Risks Remain
The December US CPI came in better than expected. While headline CPI met estimates of 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), core surprised to the downside at 0.2% m/m, decelerating to 3.2% y/y from 3.3%. Moderation in core annual inflation was driven by both goods, which are…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
UK: Inflation Surprises To The Downside
UK inflation surprised to the downside in December. Headline inflation retreated below estimates to 2.5% y/y from an eight-month high of 2.6% in November. Core inflation also decreased below estimates, printing 3.2% vs. 3.5% in November. Services inflation,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
GFIS Model Bond Portfolio 2024 Review & 2025 Outlook: How Sustainable Is The Rise In Global Bond Yields?

Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We review the performance of the portfolio in 2024 and discuss how to best position a global fixed income portfolio following the sharp rise in yields during the last months.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper, Deborah Acri
Did Chinese Credit Bottom?
China’s monetary and credit data was relatively strong. New yuan loans increased more than expected, as did aggregate financing. M2 met estimates at 7.3% y/y. As was the case for trade in December, seasonality plays a big role in China around the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
NFIB: Keep Fading Post-Election Euphoria
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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