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Fixed Income

WARNING. Animal Spirits On Premises. Enter At Own Risk.
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists published their monthly tactical asset allocation report, where they illustrate booming expectations in the US will be self-limiting. For the first time since 2022, US GDP growth is expected to start the year above…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Euro Area: Inflation Is A Lagging Variable
December euro area inflation met expectations, with headline HICP printing at 2.4% y/y from 2.2% in November, and core steady at 2.7%, above the ECB’s target. Services inflation remains elevated at 4.0% y/y, up from 3.9% a month prior. While services…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US JOLTS: Looking Beyond Strong Job Openings
Job openings once again beat expectations in November, increasing to 8.1m from 7.8m in October. However, hires and quits decreased and layoffs increased. The gap between quits and layoffs, a leading indicator of labor market demand, ticked down. The jobs gap,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ISM Services: Fade Price Pressures Rebound
The December ISM Services PMI beat estimates, increasing to 54.1 from 52.1 in November. All subcomponents increased except for employment, which nonetheless remains in expansion. The prices paid component was especially strong, increasing to 64.4 from…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Fed In 2025
Our US Bond Strategy team published their outlook for the Fed in 2025. They expect more cuts than the 50 bps signaled by the Fed at its December meeting. Core PCE inflation is tracking well below the Fed’s 2.5% forecast, while unemployment could exceed…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Euro Breaks Long-Held Support Level
The euro broke the support level of its 2-year trading range against the USD, extending the strong dollar trend witnessed since September of last year. This trend will continue in Q1 2025. Despite global yields rallying in late 2024, the Bund-Treasury…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Monthly TAA Report: WARNING. Animal Spirits On Premises. Enter At Own Risk

Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda. US manufacturing will not recover with a surging dollar. Fears of inflation and debt sustainability have made moderate House Republicans push back against the President Elect’s wishes. Given the sky-high optimism embedded in asset prices, we believe a defensive portfolio stance is warranted on a 12-month horizon. Overweight gold to hedge the risk of a fiscal crisis.

Global Asset Allocation by Juan Manuel Correa
The Fed In 2025

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2025 discusses our expectations for interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and the 2025 strategic review. 

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
What Else To Read? Academic Edition
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upheld their yearly tradition of putting together reading or listening recommendations for the holiday period. This year, our strategists and research teams sent their best recommendations for academic work that has…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A Very Hawkish Cut

Our thoughts on this afternoon’s Fed decision and the bond market reaction. 

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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