We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI release, concluding that TIPS breakeven inflation rates have room to fall.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024.
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
The force of the post-election momentum leads us to believe we could be stopped out of our defensive positioning before the week is out, but we still believe in our recession call. If we are eventually stopped out, we will seek a…
As highlighted recently, we do not think China’s announced stimulus measures will be enough to stave off deflation (see Today’s Pick). To lift China’s economy, Beijing must unveil large fiscal transfers to…
This Strategy Insight presents our view on today’s rate cut by the Bank of England as well as the budget announced by the UK government last week.
Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish…
The bond market had long anticipated a Trump 2.0 administration, but bond yields still spiked as a Trump victory materialized. What’s the path ahead for US rates? Our US bond strategists believe 10-year yields can go up…
The post-COVID inflation pushed bond yields higher, turning the stock-bond yield correlation negative and taking away bonds’ hedging properties. The relationship normalized this summer as economic data surprised negatively…