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Fixed Income

European Sentiment Data Confirms December Softening
European sentiment data was mixed. The December Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed estimates and was down 1 point to 84.7 from November. The decrease came from its expectations component, which fell to 84.4 from 87.2. Meanwhile, the December ZEW…
Daily Insights
China: No November Acceleration
Chinese activity indicators were mixed in November, reflecting the dynamic of a resilient supply side coupled with weak demand. Industrial production growth was roughly flat at 5.4% y/y vs. 5.3% in October, while retail sales slowed down to 3.0% y/y from…
Daily Insights
2025 Views: The USD, EM, China, And Commodities
Our Emerging Markets, China, and Commodities strategy teams published their 2025 joint outlook. Our colleagues remain bullish on the US dollar for now but see rising odds of the Trump administration actively pursuing greenback devaluation. To avoid steep…
Daily Insights
Dispatches From The Future (January 2, 2026): The 2025 Recession
Our Global Investment Strategy team released their 2025 outlook, adopting the unique perspective of time-travelers reporting from January 2, 2026. They foresee a challenging 2025, with the global economy slowing sharply and the NBER pinning the start date…
Daily Insights
Key Views 2025: The Year Of Change

For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Dispatches From The Future (January 2, 2026): The 2025 Recession

This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we decided to harness the power of the multiverse to tell you what did happen (in at least one highly representative timeline).

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Tuesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets.

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2025. We will be back in the first week of January with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
BoC Back At Neutral
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.25%, a move predicted by economists and roughly priced in. The consecutive supersized cut brings the policy rate in the upper end of the 2.25%-to-3.25% range the BoC considers as neutral. With inflation…
Daily Insights
US Inflation Report Cements December Cut
The November CPI came in line with expectations, accelerating to 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y) from 0.2% (2.6% y/y) in October. Core also printed at 0.3% m/m, the same as October and remaining at 3.3% y/y. The acceleration was mainly driven by food and used cars. …
Daily Insights
2025 Key Views: US Fixed Income

We offer 5 key investment views for US fixed income markets in 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Hard Data Shows No Pickup In Global Growth
China’s November trade balance increased to CNY 692.8 bln on the back of slowing-but-still-growing exports (down to 5.8% y/y from 11.2% in October), and a worsening imports contraction (-4.7% y/y vs. -3.7% in October). In Japan, growth in machine tools orders…
Daily Insights

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