Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Fixed Income

November In Review
November trading was centered around the US election and its aftermath. US assets led the way, with US equities significantly outperforming their global counterparts. The US dollar strengthened considerably against both DM and EM currencies. Investment-grade…
Daily Insights
Monthly TAA Report: Thin Is Back In! How Budgets, Growth, And Valuations Will Be Leaner Than Expected In 2025

The post-COVID recovery has been one of excesses. Government deficits have ballooned, tight labor markets have led to a windfall of consumer spending, and equity valuations have soared on the back of lofty growth expectations. But these excesses will no longer be sustainable in 2025. Our theme for next year is Thin Is Back In. Government budgets, economic growth, and equity valuations will be leaner than investors expect. We discuss this the reasoning behind this macro view and the asset allocation implications that follow from it.

Global Asset Allocation by Juan Manuel Correa
Japan: Keep Betting On Divergence
The November Tokyo CPI beat expectations, with headline inflation accelerating to 2.6% y/y from 1.8%. The core (ex. fresh food) and “core core” (ex. fresh food and energy) measures also reaccelerated to 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. The Tokyo CPI provides…
Daily Insights
A Year-End Review Of Our Open Positions

This week we conduct a thorough audit of our open positions by revisiting the original basis and subsequent performance of all 13 cyclical recommendations. Following the review, we recommend closing 6 of the 13 positions.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
US: Disinflation Not At Risk For Now, Spending Slows Down
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of 0.3% m/m in October, and accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% in September. Inflation rose on the back of hot inputs from the PPI report, which is not expected to last. The market-based core…
Daily Insights
BCA’s 2025 Outlook: Walking A Tightrope
Our 2025 Outlook was just published. We revisit this year’s calls and discuss what we think is ahead for the global economy and markets for the next 12 months and beyond. The recent US election has significantly shifted our economic and market outlook. A…
Daily Insights
What’s Next For US Yields?
Our US bond strategists expect yields to remain volatile, and do not have confidence that yields have peaked yet. The transition period to a new US administration introduces headline risks on where fiscal policy is headed.   At about 4.4%, the…
Daily Insights
Governance, Scale, And Liquidity: Lessons From US Public Pension Funds
Our Global Asset Allocation team analyzed the performance and allocation strategies of 79 US public pension funds, providing insights across governance, scale, and liquidity.  Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) is the most significant driver of fund…
Daily Insights
China: Still No Turning Point
Chinese activity indicators showed resilience in October, with retail sales jumping from 3.2% to 4.8% y/y. Industrial production growth was roughly unchanged at 5.3% y/y. New and used home prices keep falling, albeit at a slower pace. We would fade this…
Daily Insights
US: Expect Disinflation To Continue
US CPI inflation for October printed in line with expectations and was unchanged from September, with headline at 0.2% month-over-month and core at 0.3%. Headline re-accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% on an annual basis, and core stayed steady at 3.3%. This…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics