Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Fixed Income

f_image_20241023_144915.PNG
Fade The Trump Trade In US Bond Markets

A Donald Trump victory would send bond yields higher during the next few weeks, but yields will fall in 2025 no matter the election outcome.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Will Equities Capitulate From Higher Yields?
Dear client, We are launching a new type of Daily Insight titled “Cross-Asset Focus”, where we delve into the dynamics between multiple asset classes, tying them to the current macro and market regimes. The inaugural entry looks at the dynamics between…
Daily Insights
A “No-Landing” Playbook
According to the latest estimate of the output gap, the US economy still operates above potential. Continued overheating – a no-landing scenario – would cause a drastic re-pricing across markets which expect a near-perfect soft-landing. The output gap is…
Daily Insights
Fade Higher US Treasury Yields
US Treasury yields rose nearly 60 bps since their September lows, with the 10-year maturity recently reaching 4.2%. This move was a bear steepening, the front of the curve did not rise as much. Positive economic surprises mainly drove this spike, but the…
Daily Insights
The Trump Trade And EM Fixed Income
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team sees evidence of a “Trump trade” across markets, as the dollar strengthens, Treasury yields jump, and US small caps try to break out. However, the tactical and cyclical outcomes differ. While Trump 2.0 points to tariffs…
Daily Insights
f_image_20241021_162658.PNG
The Trump Trade And EM Fixed Income

As the odds of a Trump victory increase, there are indications that the “Trump trade” has commenced in global financial markets, with negative short-term implications for EM. In short, the US dollar will strengthen, and US bond yields will rise in the lead-up to and after the election if Trump wins. In response, EM countries’ currencies will depreciate, and their fixed-income and equity markets will suffer over the coming months.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
UK Housing At Crosswinds
Despite elevated mortgage rates, UK home prices remain resilient. Average new seller asking prices were roughly flat in October, even as evidence of selling pressures are emerging.  According to Rightmove, total home prices were up 0.3% in October and…
Daily Insights
A Re-Heating Risk?
Since the August selloff in risk assets, the main cross-asset driver was the shift from inflation worries to growth worries. Some of that price action has reversed, as TIPS breakeven inflation rates swiftly rebounded since early September. The 2-year…
Daily Insights
Housing Is The Business Cycle… And Housing Is Weakening
US housing starts and building permits eased below expectations in September. Permits, a proxy for future construction, dropped 2.9% after rising 4.6% in August. New construction fell 0.5% after rising 7.8% a month prior. These disappointing numbers extend…
Daily Insights
f_image_20241017_195524.PNG
The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics