Core Europe’s industrial sector will relapse in the coming months due to US tariffs and a strong euro. Investors can play the imminent deflationary shock by being long Central European bonds. They should, however, hedge the…
USD-denominated Emerging Market bonds have been outperforming US corporates for the past year. We don’t think the rally is exhausted yet.
A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.
The August employment report showed a modest increase in labor market slack, enough to cement a 25-basis-point rate cut this month.
The bond vigilantes are circling over several targets right now: France, the UK, and Japan. But France is the most vulnerable because of a toxic combination: a total debt ratio well above 300 percent plus the worst primary deficit in…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2025.
Our Emerging Markets strategists expect EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads to widen as global trade slows and domestic demand weakens, despite a softer US dollar. USD depreciation alone will not drive a sustained rally in EM…
EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads are set to widen. Within a global credit portfolio, maintain a neutral allocation to EM credit markets versus US corporate credit. Favor EM local currency bonds over EM USD bonds.
Trade tensions briefly broke the USD-rates link, but the dollar will remain a countercyclical currency for the near future. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, driven by foreign investors reducing exposure to US assets…
The cost of tariffs is falling on the US consumer, not foreign exporters or US firms.