It’s status quo for the SIFI banks, as they don’t see consumer credit performance materially worsening from now-normalized levels and they are not meaningfully exposed to commercial real estate losses.
US initial unemployment insurance claims jumped this week and are now running above levels seen at this time of year in 2023, 2019 and 2018. We choose 2023, 2019 and 2018 as our benchmarks because the unemployment rate ran…
In this Insight, we look into the recent CPI release in Canada, and the possible implications for fixed-income market trades.
Markets had already been sussing out that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates for the second time when it meets next week, and this morning’s soft CPI report all but confirmed it. The last remaining obstacle in the…
Non-trivial divergences emerged between mainstream LATAM economies after the 2021 post-pandemic boom. These growth differentials are set to continue across the cyclical horizon. According to our Emerging Markets strategists,…
On Monday morning, both election betting markets and financial markets reacted to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump that occurred over the weekend. Predictably, the betting odds that Trump will win the presidency in…
The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?
In this report, we present the quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. Rebounding growth and political instability led to slightly negative portfolio performance in Q2/2024. As global growth starts to moderate, we continue to…
US dollar liquidity has been shrinking, which has important ramifications for global asset prices, including currencies. In this report, we delve into the process of dollar liquidity creation and the outlook for currencies over the…
Since early 2023, the Philippine peso has depreciated by 8% versus the US dollar despite the country’s central bank pushing up real policy rates by 500 basis points. BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy argues that raising…