According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, investors are overstating the degree to which bond yields will rise under a Trump presidency. For one thing, the team expects the US to fall into recession…
South African stocks, domestic bonds, and currency have all rallied since BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team upgraded South African assets last month following the formation of the new national unity government. The rally…
In light of last week’s employment report and this morning’s CPI, it’s time for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Although we ticked a second box on our checklist, the incoming data still do not indicate that a recession is imminent. We remain tactically equal weight equities with a strong bias to underweight them, but we’re not exiting the…
The latest release of the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicated further softening of the labor market in the Great White North. The economy experienced a net loss in total employment, shedding 1,400 jobs compared to market…
In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.
Our labor market indicators have softened meaningfully during the past month but aren’t yet signaling an imminent recession. That said, the Fed can no longer ignore the labor market with the unemployment rate above 4% and rising.
The new Labour government will have flexibility to respond to macro shocks, which is positive for the UK in general, namely GBP-EUR, and also gilts in absolute terms. But over the long run, tax hikes will likely surprise to the…
Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.