This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.
The BTP-Bund spread has tightened to pre-2010s levels, but with global growth risks we favor Gilts over Bunds and prefer BTPs over credit. While the EURO STOXX 50 remains rangebound since the Liberation Day recovery, European…
Canada’s July jobs report was mixed, but persistent slack and trade headwinds support our overweight in Canadian bonds and preference for 5s10s steepeners. Employment fell by 40.8k, driven by a 51k drop in full-time jobs, yet…
The BoE delivered a narrow rate cut to 4%, but a divided vote and fading growth momentum suggest markets are underpricing further easing. Stay overweight UK Gilts. The 5-4 split reflected concerns among dissenters about a…
Expectations for US inflation at 3.3 percent are inconsistent with expectations for the Fed to slash rates, so one of these expectations is likely wrong. We describe how to play this mispricing. Plus, a new position is to go…
India’s central bank held rates at 5.5%, but restrictive policy, weak credit impulse, and rising external risks support further easing and a long bond position. Real lending rates remain near decade highs, and the negative…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2025.
While the early resignation of Fed Gov. Kugler opened the door for a politically aligned nominee, yields will ultimately be determined by the economic outlook. Her departure triggered a further intraday DXY drop, as markets reacted…
Hot July inflation does little to alter Switzerland’s near-term deflationary outlook, as soft data and trade risks support a defensive stance and preference for bonds over equities. CPI ticked up to 0.2% y/y from 0.1%, with core…
Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack.