Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% m/m in April from 0.3% m/m in March and came in below expectations. On a year-on-year basis, they decelerated from 4.1% to 3.9%, the lowest since June 2021 and below expectations of 4…
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in April. The headline index fell to 49.4 from 51.4, below expectations of a faster pace of growth. April’s contraction ends a streak of 15 consecutive months of services-sector…
Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.
Mainland residents’ investments in gold, other metals, and Hong Kong-traded stocks are a form of capital outflow. Chinese authorities will counter any excessive capital flight with stricter administrative controls. Thus, markets…
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged following its May FOMC meeting. It also announced it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening starting on June 1, from the current $60 billion per month to $25 billion per month for…
Updated views on US Treasury yields and the dollar following today’s FOMC meeting.
The details of the JOLTS report showed a labor market that continued to cool in March. The number of US job openings decreased to 8.488 million in March, from 8.813 million in February, and below expectations of 8.680 million…
Wild hopes for US rate cuts got shattered, exactly as we predicted. But given the different incentives that the Fed and ECB now face, the relative pricing between the Fed and the ECB could widen further in the coming months. We…
Central banks are in a dilemma whether to prioritize supporting growth or bringing inflation back to target. This is unlikely to end well. Investors should be defensively positioned.
MacroQuant downgraded equities from neutral to underweight on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model suggests increasing exposure to cash.