UK retail sales volumes were flat in March, a decrease from the 0.1% growth registered in February and disappointing expectations of a 0.3% m/m increase. The details were mixed, with automotive fuel and non-…
By the end of 2023, the “soft landing” scenario became the dominant narrative in financial markets. Following the regional banking scare in March of last year, market participants slowly came around to the view that…
The IMF’s latest fiscal monitor report highlighted the dangers that rising sovereign debt alongside rising deficits pose to advanced economies. The United States, in particular, is at risk. The IMF projects that fiscal…
BCA’s US Beige Book Monitor – an indicator we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s Beige Book report and which historically tracks US GDP growth – has improved in April. Nevertheless…
The equity risk premium – calculated as the 12-month forward earnings yield minus the 10-year real rate – continues to drop both for US and global stocks, standing at 2.7% and 3.7% respectively. The compression of the…
UK inflation came in hotter than expected in March. Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 0.6% m/m – above expectations of a slowdown to 0.4% m/m. Moreover, while the headline and core measures both decelerated on an…
Unlike most advanced economies that are flirting with recession due to weak demand, the ‘inverted’ US economy is motoring along due to strong supply, from a combination of surging labour participation and surging immigration. We go…
Advanced estimates for retail sales in the US grew by 0.7% m/m in March, down from an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m in February, but meaningfully outperforming expectations of 0.3% m/m. Retail sales ex autos also surprised to the…
In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.