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Fixed Income

Central Bank Monitor Update: Who Can Land The Economy Softly?
Our DM strategists recommend regional bond overweights in the UK, Canada, and Sweden, and express policy divergence through tactical FX trades: long USD, underweight GBP and SEK, and long JPY vs. EUR. Most G10 central banks are nearing neutral, but their next…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
RBA Holds at 3.6%, Signals Caution On Higher Inflation
The RBA held rates at 3.6% as expected, maintaining caution as inflation could prove stronger than expected. Policy remains slightly restrictive, and at most one additional cut is on the table as the central bank has achieved a soft landing. While the RBA has…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Mexico: Ride The Bond Train
Banxico cut rates to 7.5%, reinforcing our call to go long Mexican local bonds and overweight Mexico across EM portfolios. Inflation is within target, giving policymakers space to ease. Sound fiscal management and strong external accounts continue to support…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana, Armen Hamazaspyan
Watch Out For… Good News?
Our tactical framework, which tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises, points to stronger near-term growth, leaving equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. Data surprises move markets, while bond yields and the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Two Provocative Papers From Jackson Hole

This week’s US Bond Strategy Special Report takes a look at the two most provocative papers presented at last month’s Jackson Hole conference.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Beware Rates Volatility
Low rates volatility has been a key tailwind for equities, but the fragile equilibrium leaves markets exposed to AI sentiment and inflation risks. Rates volatility, measured by the MOVE index, has drifted to multi-year lows and sits below its 20th percentile…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Thoughts On The Neutral Rate And Policy Restrictiveness
Post-FOMC speeches reveal divisions across the committee, reinforcing long duration as policy remains mildly restrictive. The September dots showed a split, with half of participants expecting at most one 25 bps cut and the rest seeing at least two. Gov.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Fed Moves Inflation Goalposts To 3 Percent

The Fed’s actions tell us that it has chosen to avoid a recession at the cost of moving its inflation goalposts to 3 percent. Thus begins the slippery slope to price instability. Long-term investors should underweight the dollar, own some gold, but better than gold is bitcoin. Plus, a new tactical trade is short GOOGL vs. SPY.


 

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
No Risk-Free Path For Fed Policy

Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Stablecoins Spotlight

From Treasurys to tokenization, stablecoins are quietly becoming one of the most disruptive forces in global finance, with the power to compress yields, deepen dollar penetration, and shift the balance within crypto markets. Explore BCA’s latest insights on their growing impact.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Artem Sakhbiev

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