The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.
The message from Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech on Wednesday could not be clearer: there’s still no rush. While market participants as well as the FOMC are still pricing in three rate cuts this year, the…
We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.
For the first time in at least fifty years, US labour supply is running well below labour demand, meaning the US economy is ‘inverted’. We discuss how and why the economy inverted, and what it means for recession, inflation, and…
In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.
In this Insight, we continue our series of reports outlining investment frameworks for inflation-linked bonds in the developed markets, this time focusing on Japan. Our Japanese Inflation-Linked Golden Rule suggests that investors…
A risk/reward ranking of the 10 major US investment grade corporate bond sectors.
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) unexpectedly rose by 0.1% m/m in February, surprising anticipations that the pace of decline would ease from -0.4% m/m to -0.1% m/m. Equity gains and the…
The steepening of the yield-curve powered the outperformance of the S&P 500 Financials relative to the overall market since the spring of 2023 banking crisis. This sector returned 30.1% over this period, against 27.3% for the…