Presently, our four high-conviction themes are: (1) the US dollar will rally as US growth continues to outpace the rest of the world; (2) US equities will continue to outperform EM and European stocks until a major sell-off occurs; (…
In the past couple of years, Mexico has been among the favorite markets for investors within the EM space. As our Emerging Markets Strategy team argued in a recent report, the cyclical and structural outlook for Mexican risk…
Our Emerging Market Strategy (EMS) colleagues recommended booking an 11.4% gain on their Egyptian T-bill trade initiated earlier in the year. Now that currency-devaluation risk has been removed from the picture for the…
The US January JOLTS data released yesterday was in line with expectations, with job openings clocking in at 8.86 million versus a downwardly-revised 8.89 million in December. Importantly, US job openings are likely to continue…
The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate steady at 5% for the sixth consecutive meeting yesterday, in line with expectations. The BoC, which has changed its communication policy to now provide a press conference after every…
Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered…
We noted in a previous Insight that recent comments from Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, may reflect a growing realization among policymakers that they have inadvertently caused a…
We feel as good about spurning the soft-landing narrative today as we did about spurning the recession narrative a year ago, but we are not giving into complacency. This week’s report looks at two key ways that we may be getting it…
The preliminary Eurozone inflation release suggests that price pressures eased by less than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation slowed from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y (slightly above expectations of 2.5% y/y. Similarly,…
In this Strategy Insight, we take a comparative look at two of the largest spread product sectors in Europe – Italian government bonds and investment grade corporates. We make the case for favoring Italy over investment grade in the…