We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a…
Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays report for December delivered a positive update on the US economy. On the growth side, the data confirm the signal from the Q4 GDP release that consumer spending continues to power…
Low inflation argues for the Fed to move relatively quickly toward rate cuts. Continued above-trend GDP growth poses a risk to this view, but leading indicators point to slower growth in the coming quarters.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service there is more downside than upside for stocks and yields. Every year the team chooses their top five low-probability, high-impact events that could roil markets.…
There is no easy way for China to forestall deflation. Provided policymakers are still reluctant to unleash large-size stimulus, more economic disappointments are likely in the coming months, and Chinese stocks will continue to sell…
Ahead of today’s Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on February 6th, our Global Fixed Income Strategists compared the monetary policy outlooks for both central banks. In Canada,…
In this Strategy Insight, we assess the monetary policy path for Australia and Canada in 2024 and we discuss how to profit from a growing divergence between the two economies.
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that investors should go long German curve steepeners. Last week at Davos, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde leaned heavily against the…
The SIFI banks expressed confidence in their credit outlook for 2024 and expect that credit losses will crest soon, given the reserves they’ve already set aside. Their implicit embrace of the soft-landing narrative suggests to us…