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Fixed Income

A Blockbuster Jobs Report
The US Employment report came in well above consensus expectations on Friday, delivering a strong positive signal on labor market conditions in January. The 353 thousand increase in nonfarm payroll employment beat expectations of a slowdown to 185 thousand.…
Daily Insights
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Timing The Transition From Soft Landing To Recession

Our thoughts on bond positioning following this morning’s employment data.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Saudi Arabia: Economic Slowdown To Persist

The Saudi economy is facing internal and external headwinds. The geopolitical conflict is also escalating in the Middle East. EM equity portfolios should stay neutral on Saudi stocks. EM sovereign credit portfolios should upgrade Saudi Arabia from neutral to overweight.

Emerging Markets Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Matt Gertken
BoE Needs More Evidence Inflation's Heading To Target
As expected, the Bank of England voted to keep its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday – maintaining policy on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting. Two of the nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25bps rise (one less than in December) while one…
Daily Insights
January In Review
The late-2023 broad-based rally across major global financial assets fizzled at the start of this year, with most of the assets we track selling off in January. Chinese stocks continued to perform exceptionally poorly, with the investable and domestic…
Daily Insights
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For The Fed, The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, US Bond Strategy
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Waiting For The Recession

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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MacroQuant Model Update: The Party Is Winding Down

Following the release of the white paper yesterday, today we are sending you the inaugural issue of the MacroQuant Monthly, a report summarizing the output of our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Tight Credit Spreads Offer Inadequate Protection
The strong H2/2023 rally in global credit markets can be attributed to lower global inflation and the associated reduction in global interest rate volatility. However, our colleagues at BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service argue that credit…
Daily Insights
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The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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