Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2023.
The recent uptick in European economic data will not last beyond the next six months. How will European corporate credit perform in this context?
Treasury yields will sketch out a range between now and Q1 2024, with the upside determined by inflation and the downside determined by labor markets.
Global financial markets delivered exceptional gains in November. Fixed income led in terms of abnormally large returns amid a shift in the market narrative in favor of significant Fed rate cuts in 2024. Importantly, the…
In this Insight, we discuss the outlook for monetary policy in New Zealand after this week’s RBNZ policy meeting, and introduce related fixed income and currency trade ideas.
Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.
The recent increase in Korean exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle rebound within a cyclical downtrend. Korea’s households and enterprises are among the most indebted globally, and their debt service ratio is among the highest…
Q3 US real GDP was revised higher in the second estimate that was released on Wednesday. The 5.2% q/q annualized increase beat expectations of a more muted upwards revision to 5.0% q/q from the advance estimate of 4.9% q/q. In…
Recent Euro Area economic data have been sending a less pessimistic signal. Wednesday’s releases are in line with this trend. The European Commission’s confidence indicator shows a mild improvement in economic…