A cyclical recovery in China’s economy is still not imminent. The PBoC has tightened interbank liquidity to stabilize the exchange rate since late August. This does not bode well for the real economy. The uptick in onshore bond…
After widening since mid-year, the spread between German bunds and Italian BTPs has been narrowing over the past month. What is driving this move? Our Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist highlighted in Tuesday's BCA Live…
According to our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service, so far this year, inflation in the US has declined sharply even though employment growth has remained strong. There are many factors that have contributed to this…
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
The US flash PMI sent a mixed signal about economic activity in November. The Composite index was unchanged at 50.7 – beating expectations of a slight decline to 50.4. The stable reading comes on the back of a…
Contrary to the prevalent belief in the global investment community, goods/merchandise inventories in the US and East Asia are rather elevated. Financial markets respond to final demand fluctuations, not inventory restocking. Global…
Poland’s inflation will stay elevated. And yet, its return to the European mainstream has improved its financial market outlook. Accordingly, we are recommending new trades on Polish equity, fixed income, and currency.
Tuesday’s CPI release confirmed that the disinflationary trend in Canada remains intact. After a brief relapse this summer, Canada’s inflation is headed in the right direction. As anticipated, headline CPI inflation…