The minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting revealed that there is a consensus among policymakers to proceed carefully. Another rate increase is appropriate only if "incoming inflation indicated that progress toward the…
After dipping into negative territory between June and early August, the Global Economic Surprise Index has since rebounded, signalling an improvement in economic momentum. Initially, this rebound was isolated to the US. However…
The soft-landing narrative has gotten nowhere at BCA but appears to be making some headway with broker-dealers and investors. We are preparing to lean against it once it pushes equity prices a little higher.
Global market sentiment has improved notably since late-October. In the equity space, DM and EM stocks have gained 8.5% and 7.8% respectively since October 26. Regarding currencies, the counter-cyclical DXY index has lost 2.2% so…
BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service continues to recommend a neutral allocation to TIPS for now, but with a bias to turn underweight. The team calculates a forecasted range for headline CPI inflation of 0.9% to 2.9%…
US jobless claims have been trending higher in recent weeks, confirming that labor market conditions are deteriorating. Initial claims came in slightly above consensus estimates on Thursday, increasing by 231 thousand versus…
The latest ‘nowcast’ for world economic growth in the fourth quarter has plunged to just 1.2 percent, marking the cusp of another world recession. One important implication is that expectations for oil demand growth and industrial…
Many commentators have attributed the latest increase in Chinese interest rates to an improving economy, the large issuance of government bonds, the tax payments season, and other technical factors. Yet, these explanations are…
US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a…