According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ECB is the central bank that poses the lowest risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s and letting inflation expectations unanchor. One reason is the ECB’s…
US small-cap stocks have underperformed significantly this year. While the S&P 500 price index is up 14.0% year-to-date, the S&P 600 has lost 2.5%. However, this underperformance has not been a straight line down. Small…
The economies of Canada and Australia share many similarities. Both nations are major commodity exporters, but with overvalued housing markets and highly indebted consumers. Lately, however, a notable gap has appeared…
Following the October US jobs data, the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time US recession indicator increased from 0.11 to 0.15, meaning that it is fast approaching its event horizon of 0.20. We go through the investment implications. We also…
According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, the current spate of MBS underperformance has created a lot of value in the sector. Mortgage-Backed Securities underperformed the duration-equivalent Treasury index by…
Despite very low inflation, Bank Indonesia raised its policy rates last month to support the currency. The strategy did not work before and will not work now. Stay short the rupiah.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields will fall toward 2% as market-based inflation expectations dip. For now, the deceleration in Eurozone core CPI can be attributed to the…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2023.
The Eurozone’s inflation will continue to slow over the coming months. While this trend will help Bund prices, will it boost the appeal of European equities?
We consider several uncertainties in this week’s report, from the interest rate outlook to the source of the mountain of cash households have amassed since the pandemic began. We have not adjusted our tactical asset-allocation…