Trump’s immigration policies are protecting the US economy from a sharp rise in unemployment but steering it into a ‘mini stagflation’. Plus: a new tactical trade is to underweight global technology (IXN).
Regional Fed surveys confirm sluggish US manufacturing and tame inflation, supporting long duration positioning outside the US. The June Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey missed expectations, rising to -12.7 from -15.3, still deep in…
Banxico’s dovish stance reinforces our bullish view on Mexican local currency debt. The Mexican central bank cut interest rates by another 50 basis points to 8%. The central bank will continue easing monetary policy well…
Our US Bond strategists expect a modest narrowing of the Treasury/OIS spread, supporting a cyclical long-duration stance and 2s10s steepeners. Over the past year, the spread has added roughly 30 bps to the 10-year Treasury yield,…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
A dovish early Fed nominee would increase volatility in rates and FX as markets reassess the credibility of US monetary policy. News reports indicate the Trump administration is considering nominating a Fed successor ahead of the end…
Our Global Fixed Income, FX, and European strategists expect aggressive BoE easing amid disinflation and labor market weakness, supporting an overweight in Gilts and UK equities versus the euro area. While UK productivity remains…
Dovish signals from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman increase the likelihood of a rate cut as early as July, supporting long front-end positions and steepeners. Last week’s FOMC meeting revealed a split between hawkish participants…
A stronger Norwegian krone has opened the door to more rate cuts, making Norwegian government bonds more attractive. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, European Strategist. With its surprise 25 basis point cut, the…