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Fixed Income

Weak Chinese Private Sector Loan Demand In October
China's money and credit data remained weak in October. New total social financing amounted to RMB 1.85 trillion – less than the RMB 1.95 trillion anticipated and below the prior month's increase of RMB 4.12 trillion. Similarly, loans extended by banks fell…
Daily Insights
Treasury Yields And The Relative Performance Of Cyclical Equities
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury market dynamics. The relative…
Daily Insights
US Policy Is Restrictive, But Inflation Expectations Are Still High
The preliminary release for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent a pessimistic signal about consumer sentiment on Friday. The headline index fell from 63.8 to 60.4 in November, below expectations of a marginal decrease to 63.7. Declines in both…
Daily Insights
Weak UK Economy Raises Likelihood BoE Leads Pivot To Easing
The UK economy stagnated in Q3 – a deterioration from the minor 0.2% q/q expansion in the prior quarter. Although the Q3 figure is slightly better than anticipations of a 0.1% q/q contraction, the details of the report are generally weak. Consumption dropped…
Daily Insights
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Philippines: Can A Rate Hike Stem The Peso Slide?

The recent rate hike by the Philippines central bank cannot control food inflation. Nor can it stem the currency slide.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
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Biden Not A Lame Duck (Yet)

Results from Tuesday’s elections suggest that the Democrats are doing better than what their 2024 polling are showing. While the results are marginally positive for equities, investors should not overrate this off-year election, especially considering the slowing economy and the many foreign challenges facing the US.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
If You Buy Just One Bond, Buy The German Bund
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ECB is the central bank that poses the lowest risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s and letting inflation expectations unanchor. One reason is the ECB’s inherited Germanic anti-inflation DNA. Even…
Daily Insights
Will US Small Caps Continue To Disappoint?
US small-cap stocks have underperformed significantly this year. While the S&P 500 price index is up 14.0% year-to-date, the S&P 600 has lost 2.5%. However, this underperformance has not been a straight line down. Small caps benefited from a…
Daily Insights
A Growing Monetary Policy Divergence Between Australia & Canada
A Growing Monetary Policy Divergence Between Australia & Canada …
Daily Insights
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The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator Approaches Its Event Horizon

Following the October US jobs data, the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time US recession indicator increased from 0.11 to 0.15, meaning that it is fast approaching its event horizon of 0.20. We go through the investment implications. We also highlight a new long-term recommendation. Plus, the Norwegian krone is close to a potential rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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