The biggest banks report that consumer credit card delinquencies still have yet to get back to pre-COVID levels and other credit performance indicators, leading and lagging, remain solid. There is still a great deal of cash sloshing…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service is maintaining a tactical neutral duration stance to begin Q4. The team believes the risk/reward on US Treasuries has improved substantially after latest backup in…
The data releases this week in the UK were disappointing for those that have been looking for a major downshift in UK inflation – most importantly, the Bank of England (BoE). The CPI report for September came in above…
The Hamas attack against Israel, timed almost 50 years to the day after a similar surprise attack on Yom Kippur of 1973, has evoked parallels with the 1970s. Parallels not only with Middle Eastern geopolitics then and now, but also…
In this report, we present the quarterly review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio. The portfolio remains positioned for slower global growth momentum over the next 6-12 months, favoring government bonds over…
The recent bear-steepening of the US Treasury curve has been driven by the combination of stronger-than-expected economic growth and stable Fed rate expectations. Historically, such periods do not last very long, and we see the…
The US retail sales report delivered a sanguine update on US consumption. Overall spending increased by 0.7% m/m in September – above expectations of a 0.3% m/m rise and following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m in August. The…
Results of the Banks of Canada’s Q3 business and consumer surveys reveal that the aggressive tightening cycle is dampening economic agents’ sentiment. Putting aside the sharp decline at the onset of the pandemic in Q2…
Yields remain the force dominating the evolution of markets. A peak in yields would help European assets rebound, but the war in the Middle East could push higher energy prices, with negative consequences for Europe.
On the surface, Chinese credit data sent a positive signal about the domestic economy. Chinese aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.1 trillion in September – exceeding both August’s CNY 3.1 trillion and…