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Fixed Income

Agency MBS Spreads Look Very Attractive
According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, the current spate of MBS underperformance has created a lot of value in the sector. Mortgage-Backed Securities underperformed the duration-equivalent Treasury index by 64 basis points in October,…
Daily Insights
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Indonesia: Back To The Old Playbook

Despite very low inflation, Bank Indonesia raised its policy rates last month to support the currency. The strategy did not work before and will not work now. Stay short the rupiah.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
The Eurozone's Disinflationary Impulse Is Broadening
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields will fall toward 2% as market-based inflation expectations dip. For now, the deceleration in Eurozone core CPI can be attributed to the effect of the pass-through of energy…
Daily Insights
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Bonds Need Labor Market Weakness To Extend The Rally

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Open Questions

We consider several uncertainties in this week’s report, from the interest rate outlook to the source of the mountain of cash households have amassed since the pandemic began. We have not adjusted our tactical asset-allocation recommendations but will do so soon to align with the defensive cast of our cyclical recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Europe’s Disinflation Continues

The Eurozone’s inflation will continue to slow over the coming months. While this trend will help Bund prices, will it boost the appeal of European equities?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
The Message From The FX G10 Attractiveness Model
The FX G10 attractiveness model continues to favor the US dollar, but the tide could shift in the coming weeks. Currencies such as the NOK, CHF and even CAD have been rising in rankings in recent months. Using an aggregate of economic and financial…
Daily Insights
The BoE: Restrictive For Longer
As expected, the Bank of England kept its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% at Thursday's MPC meeting with six members voting in favor of the decision and the remaining three preferring a 25bps rate increase. Governor Andrew Bailey stressed at the post-meeting…
Daily Insights
The Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, while economic growth will be a much more important driver of Treasury yields going forward than supply, the Treasury department did make several announcements on Wednesday that will mitigate any negative…
Daily Insights
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Conversations With Ms. Mea: Beware Of Widening Cracks

In financial systems, cracks typically begin on the periphery and then expand to the center. Hence, the ruptures on the fringes often act as an early warning. These fissures tend to widen and spread to the core, causing a breakdown in the S&P 500. Investors should consider buying US Treasurys aggressively when the S&P 500 slips below 4,000.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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