Back in May, our foreign exchange team suggested the risk to sterling was to the downside. Indeed, GBP/USD is down 8% from its recent peak. While dollar strength largely explains this move in GBP/USD, there have been other…
The last few weeks saw a repricing of nominal yields to levels not breached since before the Great Financial Crisis. Breaking down the US 10-year Treasury yield into real and inflation expectations components reveals the selloff…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that has preceded several turning-points in the last few years. This…
US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy…
Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and…
The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent…
Dovish comments by several Fed officials contributed to a Treasury rally and improvement in sentiment towards risk assets on Tuesday. Globally, rumors that Beijing is planning to unleash more stimulus supported Chinese financial…
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, the stronger-than-anticipated improvement in German factory orders should be viewed with some degree of caution. Germany is the European economy most exposed to the global manufacturing…
Households’ excess pandemic savings will eventually run out, but we continue to disagree with the widespread view that they’re already gone or entirely in the hands of the wealthy. Consumers’ demise continues to be greatly…