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Fixed Income

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Philippines: Can A Rate Hike Stem The Peso Slide?

The recent rate hike by the Philippines central bank cannot control food inflation. Nor can it stem the currency slide.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
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Biden Not A Lame Duck (Yet)

Results from Tuesday’s elections suggest that the Democrats are doing better than what their 2024 polling are showing. While the results are marginally positive for equities, investors should not overrate this off-year election, especially considering the slowing economy and the many foreign challenges facing the US.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
If You Buy Just One Bond, Buy The German Bund
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ECB is the central bank that poses the lowest risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s and letting inflation expectations unanchor. One reason is the ECB’s inherited Germanic anti-inflation DNA. Even…
Daily Insights
Will US Small Caps Continue To Disappoint?
US small-cap stocks have underperformed significantly this year. While the S&P 500 price index is up 14.0% year-to-date, the S&P 600 has lost 2.5%. However, this underperformance has not been a straight line down. Small caps benefited from a…
Daily Insights
A Growing Monetary Policy Divergence Between Australia & Canada
The economies of Canada and Australia share many similarities.  Both nations are major commodity exporters, but with overvalued housing markets and highly indebted consumers.  Lately, however, a notable gap has appeared between the economic…
Daily Insights
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The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator Approaches Its Event Horizon

Following the October US jobs data, the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time US recession indicator increased from 0.11 to 0.15, meaning that it is fast approaching its event horizon of 0.20. We go through the investment implications. We also highlight a new long-term recommendation. Plus, the Norwegian krone is close to a potential rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Agency MBS Spreads Look Very Attractive
According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, the current spate of MBS underperformance has created a lot of value in the sector. Mortgage-Backed Securities underperformed the duration-equivalent Treasury index by 64 basis points in October,…
Daily Insights
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Indonesia: Back To The Old Playbook

Despite very low inflation, Bank Indonesia raised its policy rates last month to support the currency. The strategy did not work before and will not work now. Stay short the rupiah.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
The Eurozone's Disinflationary Impulse Is Broadening
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields will fall toward 2% as market-based inflation expectations dip. For now, the deceleration in Eurozone core CPI can be attributed to the effect of the pass-through of energy…
Daily Insights
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Bonds Need Labor Market Weakness To Extend The Rally

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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