US dollar strength and rising real rates have created a toxic mix for the yellow metal over the past few months. Gold prices have fallen by 7.3% from the May peak and are on track to erase the year-to-date gains. Conditions…
Although BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service regards fears of dedollarization as overblown, the team is bearish on the longer-term outlook for the greenback due to two key concerns. First, the dollar…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
One of the few things US equity investors agree upon these days is that the S&P 500 is expensive whether it is relative to history, other asset classes, or the level of interest rates. But how overvalued is the market? To…
As expected, the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged on Friday. The policy rate remains at -0.1% and the central bank maintains Yield Curve Control (YCC) on 10-year JGB yields. To the extent that the BoJ…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, nonfinancial corporate businesses have been more insulated from rising interest rates than they typically are during major rate-hike campaigns, but the buffer is…
Emergency pandemic fiscal and monetary policy measures buffered households and nonfinancial corporate businesses in ways that have acted to lengthen the lags between monetary policy changes and their effect on the economy. We believe…
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favor of maintaining its bank rate at 5.25% on Thursday. The four members that voted against the pause all preferred a 25-basis point rate increase. The tight…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the combination of rising oil prices, an appreciating US dollar, and mounting US bond yields constitutes a triple whammy for US share prices. One risk that…
The global downturn will be shallower than it was in 2008 and in 2020 but will last for longer. The primary reason for a more prolonged downturn is that policymakers in the US, Europe, and China will be reluctant to proactively and…