Worsening manufacturing momentum supports a long duration stance as recession risks remain elevated. The June Philly Fed survey came in below expectations, unchanged at -4.0. While shipments increased, new orders decelerated and…
Our Geopolitical strategists expect US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran, raising near-term risks to oil supply and market stability. Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting regional oil production and transport…
UK disinflation and labor market softening support our overweight in Gilts and short GBP trade. UK CPI came in slightly hotter than expected in May, with headline inflation at 3.4% y/y (vs. 3.5% in April) and core CPI meeting…
The Fed held rates steady between 4.25% to 4.5% and maintained a hawkish tilt despite soft data, reinforcing our long-duration and steepener trades. The updated dot plot showed upward revisions to both inflation and unemployment…
In this note, we reaffirm our underweight position in JGBs and long yen positions given the BoJ’s meeting overnight.
US May retail sales missed expectations, reinforcing our defensive allocation stance. Headline sales fell 0.9% m/m from a downwardly revised -0.1%. Core sales dropped 0.1%, while the control group rose 0.4%, beating estimates. Auto…
ZEW expectations jumped in May, but underlying macro fragility supports a cautious stance on eurozone assets. The ZEW expectations index for the euro area rose to 35.3 from 11.6, with Germany also beating expectations. The current…
Household data beat in May, but China’s macro story remains fragile, reinforcing our overweight in local government bonds. Traditional supply-side activity decelerated, with industrial production and fixed asset investment both…
While consumer sentiment is rebounding, sticky inflation expectations and slowing growth warrant staying long duration and steepeners. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surprised to the upside,…
Elevated inflation expectations are keeping the Fed sidelined, reinforcing our long-duration and steepener bias in US rates. The US May CPI would have normally supported cuts, but the Fed cannot risk elevated short-term…