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  As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 5% on Wednesday. In particular, the central bank highlighted that domestic economic growth deteriorated. Indeed, last week’s GDP release showed the…
  Recent Eurozone economic data indicate that restrictive monetary policy and the global manufacturing downturn are weighing down on the region’s economy. In particular, new orders at German factories plunged by 11.7% m/m…
The broader rally that started in June is premised on a Goldilocks narrative that will prove to be a fairy tale. Either by stubborn inflation. Or, by higher unemployment that shows that the war on inflation is far from costless. Or,…
  Global financial markets relapsed in August. After a relatively strong performance in June and July, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month as investors shifted their focus to the…
US bond investment takeaways from this week’s PCE and employment releases.
A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven.
Special Report In Part 2 of this series, we prescribe the treatment needed to produce a recovery for the ailing Chinese economy. Authorities will only panic and unleash “irrigation-style” stimulus if the unemployment rate rises sharply, or a…
  The US Personal Income and Outlays report shows consumption remained resilient in July. Although personal income growth decelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.2% m/m, spending accelerated from an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m to 0.8% m/m…
  Eurozone headline inflation surprised to the upside in August, confirming the signal from the preliminary German and Spanish releases. The year-on-year gauge was unchanged at 5.3% – surprising expectations of a deceleration…
Special Report Highlights The simple relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation, the traditional Phillips Curve, is not especially strong. But this perspective is archaic and ignores the lessons learned by central bankers during the…