In Section I, we respond to the ongoing challenge to our view that the US economy is on a recessionary path. The available evidence overwhelmingly supports the notion that US monetary policy is tight, which argues against the “no…
Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.
Euro Area inflation data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. According to preliminary data, although Germany’s harmonized headline CPI inflation rate fell from 6.5% y/y to 6.4% y/y in August, it nevertheless came in…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook calls for a modest curve steepening as wage growth and inflation fall. Odds are that the next big yield curve move will be a bull-steepening that…
We comment on Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and recommend shifting to a barbelled allocation along the Treasury curve.
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service updated its long-term return assumptions for a wide range of public and private assets. While still lower than the historical returns, the team’s…
Today’s Strategy Report chartbook presents the data underpinning our view that both inflation and growth are slowing, likely pointing to a recession beginning sometime in the first half of next year. We are tactically equal weight…
Germany’s IFO survey sent a downbeat message on Friday. The headline Business Climate Index fell by 1.7 points to 85.7, below expectations of 86.8 and near the 85.2 level at which it bottomed in October. A 2.4-point…
The Treasury market’s reaction to Fed Chair Jermone Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was relatively tame on Friday. Although there was some volatility during the speech, the 10-year yield ended the day broadly unchanged.…