Inspired by a client’s questions, we examine the rationale behind the implementation of the trailing stop governing our near-term asset allocation recommendations.
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the gap that has formed between the S&P 500 price and its operating profit margins, as well as the divergence between the S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio and…
Numerous divergences have opened up between global risk assets and global business cycle variables. These gaps are unsustainable, and odds are that the recoupling will occur to the downside with risk assets selling off.
As expected, the US CPI release shows the monthly headline and core inflation gauges were both unchanged at 0.2% m/m in July. Notably, annualized monthly core inflation fell below 2% for the second consecutive month. Similarly,…
The rise in bond yields over the past few weeks has made some investors wonder whether US Treasurys and other government bonds really are a good hedge against recession. Could there be an environment in which the economy goes…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold’s appeal as a safe haven and store of value will increase as fiscal dominance overtakes monetary dominance at the Fed. Fitch’s…
Some thoughts on this morning’s inflation number and implications for Treasury yields and TIPS.
During the last economic expansion, a structurally overweight allocation to stocks was at least partially warranted by the idea that “There Is No Alternative” – or “T.I.N.A.” During the last…
China has generated 41 percent of the world’s economic growth through the past ten years, al-most double the 22 percent contribution from the US. Now that the Chinese growth engine is failing, we explain why it is arithmetically…
The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta…