Greece is experiencing a strong economic revival from its lows of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The Hellenic Republic has shown resilience, with an annual real GDP growth of 4.5%, outpacing the Euro Area’s growth by 2%. Greece…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange Strategy services, the British pound is overbought in the near-term and is at risk of a pullback on easing rate expectations, but this will represent a…
Time is running out on the Bank of England’s tightening cycle. UK economic growth is flirting with recession, unemployment is rising, house prices are contracting and inflation is decelerating. Markets are overestimating the eventual…
The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone sent a positive signal on Monday. It unexpectedly increased from -22.5 to -18.9 in August, surprising expectations of a further deterioration to -24.5. This marks the index’s first…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service cautions against turning bullish on corporate bonds. Corporate bonds have delivered strong excess returns versus duration-matched Treasuries during the past two months. Yet the…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2023.
August offers an opportunity to review our key views. European growth is turning the corner and inflation is improving, but does it guarantee an imminent breakout in European stocks?
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by less than anticipated in July, rising by 187 thousand versus expectations of 200 thousand. In addition, the June increase was revised down from 209 thousand to 185 thousand. Similarly,…
Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.
The recent ‘Goldilocks’ stock market rally is predicated on the hope that developed countries really can kill inflation without killing their economies. But one important warning sign suggests that the rally has gone…