The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In…
The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?
On Friday, the Bank of Japan announced an important tweak to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Although it maintained the 0.5% cap on 10-year bond yields, it indicated that it will manage the program with “greater…
US economic data released on Friday continued the string of good news about the US economy. On the inflation front, core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures – softened to 0…
A look at recent US data on economic growth and inflation, with an update on the implications for monetary policy and bond yields.
Looking at the complete picture of GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, it is understandable to assume the Fed is doing much better than it expected. GDP growth is tracking to exceed the Fed's forecast, while the outlook…
As expected, the ECB delivered a 25 basis point rate increase on Thursday, raising the policy rate to its 2001 record high of 3.75% and marking its ninth consecutive rate increase. The most important takeaway from the meeting is…
In Section I, we audit the market’s “soft landing” narrative in response to a meaningful challenge to our cautious stance from recent financial market developments. We acknowledge that US economic growth was stronger in the first…
The July FOMC meeting proceeded pretty much as expected. The Fed hiked by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the funds rate up to 5.25%-5.50%. The forward rate guidance included in the post-meeting statement was also…