Geopolitical Regions
Elevated market complacency contrasts with high geopolitical risk as oil disruption remains a key threat. Middle East tensions escalated over the weekend after the US struck Iran’s nuclear capabilities, yet markets have reacted calmly as both Washington and…
Our Commodity strategists see rising geopolitical risks as a catalyst for gold outperformance and caution that oil markets are underpricing the threat of a supply shock. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has raised the probability of a…
Geopolitical risks and fragile margins reinforce a defensive allocation stance, as oil shocks and high US equity valuations pose growing downside risks. At this month’s Views Meeting, our strategists discussed the potential fallout from an Iran-Israel…
Our Geopolitical strategists expect US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran, raising near-term risks to oil supply and market stability. Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting regional oil production and transport infrastructure,…
The Israel-Iran conflict is escalating, raising the odds of a major oil supply shock and reinforcing the case for cash, US equity overweight, and tactical energy exposure. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Political…
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Ukraine, Tariffs, and TACO: Still Buying Europe on Dips
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Our Geopolitical strategists expect a Ukraine ceasefire as Russia’s economic weakness compels Putin to shift focus from war to domestic stability. The likely outcome is not peace, but a frozen conflict that enables Russia to consolidate territorial gains…
Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend and resume the trend of Mexican asset outperformance relative to other emerging markets.
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend shifting exposure within Port Infrastructure to India as re-globalization reshapes trade flows. The US will remain a trade leader, but tensions with China and the reorganization of supply chains…
Upgrade the odds of a full-scale war in the Taiwan Strait from 5% to 10%. Rapid escalation of US-China economic war raises the probability of tensions spilling into the military-strategic domain. Investors should buy insurance against this tail risk while it is cheap. Meanwhile, use this year’s trade shock and equity volatility to increase allocation to EM manufacturing states.