Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…
Have sanctions been sufficient to persuade the Kremlin to stop its military operations in Ukraine? While sanctions have started and will continue hurting the Russian economy and financial system, the Kremlin will not halt its…
Although Central European countries are not at risk from Russia’s military attack, their financial markets will remain jittery for a while. Central European financial markets, namely Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic,…
Russian equities and the ruble – which had been trying to stage a rally since late-January – plunged on Monday on the back of renewed fears that the situation in Ukraine is heading towards conflict. Investors are…
Executive Summary Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact The Ukraine crisis is escalating as predicted. We maintain our odds: 65% limited incursion, 10% full-scale invasion, 25% diplomatic de-escalation.…
Natural gas prices on the Title Transfer Facility in the Netherlands are now significantly lower than the highs reached on December 21. The price of natgas has fallen 16% in just over a week. Similarly, USD/RUB is down 4.54% since…