Special Report

The only certainty regarding the next steps in the Brexit Saga is uncertainty. In the attached report, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy presents the BREXIT Decision Tree and reviews the possible next steps. We also collate all of the BCA…

Special Report

Highlight Even alarmists like us have been surprised by the referendum outcome; The referendum is a major break in the 70 years of European integration; It will reinforce multipolarity and increase global geopolitical risk; The U.K…

Special Report

The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the…

The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the…

Special Report

A combination of physical rebalancing in the oil markets and geopolitical risk have pushed oil prices above $50/bbl. We therefore close our recommendation - made jointly with BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy team - to long a…

Special Report

Brazilian assets are no longer oversold, are not cheap, and the political reality will likely fall far short of market expectations. Investors should continue to avoid/underweight Brazilian risk assets.

The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…

Special Report

Preliminary results from the Philippine elections suggest that policy uncertainty and discontinuity will challenge the reform trajectory of a country with one of the best macroeconomic backdrops in the emerging market universe.

Special Report

Brazil is not a buy. Impeachment alone is not a solution to Brazil's problems. Recent political changes will prove insufficient to alter the public debt dynamics in Brazil. Investors should focus on the bigger picture. Without severe…

Special Report

Clients should forgive us for being too gloomy at the start of the year -- it is difficult to be optimistic in the dead of a Montreal winter. However, with springtime comes the reflation trade, born on the wings of massive Chinese…