2026 will see geopolitical risk move sideways globally as the US pursues a ceasefire in the proxy war with Russia and a tariff truce with China ahead of midterm elections that will produce gridlock.
We got Trump's tariff shock and backtracking correct and predicted Israel's attack on Iran. But we missed the China rally — and there is still no Ukraine ceasefire.
On purely macroeconomic terms, the US economy appears to be heading towards a recession. But the whole point of our framework – GeoMacro – is to forecast the interplay between politics, geopolitics, and macro. The White House is…
The US and China appear to be moving toward a trade deal, though it remains unclear whether the goal is simply damage control or a genuine expansion of market access. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on October 30 in…
The shutdown can continue into November; only when the off-year elections and/or national opinion polls put more pressure on one or both parties will compromise start to come together to reopen the government. The US federal…
Our US and Geopolitical strategists see 50% odds of a shutdown that lasts beyond three weeks. Investors continue to wonder whether the US federal government shutdown will last long enough, or involve large enough layoffs, to affect…
The October 1 partial US government shutdown risks denting near-term GDP and sentiment but should present a buying opportunity if it triggers equity weakness. The US federal government partly shutdown on October 1 after the…
President Trump said a partial federal government shutdown is "probably likely" late in the afternoon on September 30. Senators have until midnight to pass a continuing resolution already passed by the House that would keep the…
Will the US federal government shutdown on October 1? Congressional leaders are meeting with President Trump in the White House as we go to press. If eight Democratic senators do not vote with Republicans to pass a no-frills "…
Political instability across Asia is colliding with the trade war fallout, forcing Southeast Asian economies to ease monetary and fiscal policy, while pushing the Bank of Japan in the opposite direction.