The media is missing the big picture: the war is already contained. The falling oil price confirms that. We fully expect cold feet and volatility incidents in the very near term but there is only a 5% chance of Russia triggering a…
Our US Political Strategy team recommends staying long the US dollar, as Trump’s peak political capital drives near-term policy volatility and renewed support for US assets. Market optimism is underpinned by AI enthusiasm and…
In our Beta report, we introduce a new framework for thinking about long-term investing in a multipolar world: The Garrison State. Investors need to shed their outdated view that geopolitical risks are... a risk. History teaches…
BCA’s US Political strategists warn that Russia presents an immediate market risk, with near-term pullbacks offering potential buying opportunities. President Trump is pivoting toward ceasefires and trade deals, supported by approval…
The US-EU trade deal lifts uncertainty but imposes high tariffs, weighing on the EUR and supporting our long USD positioning. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on all EU exports to the US, including cars and potentially,…
BCA’s Geopolitical strategists argue that artificial intelligence will destabilize both domestic politics and international security, prompting more aggressive fiscal responses. President Trump’s July 23 executive orders to…
BCA’s Geopolitical strategists advise investors to remain open to the possibility that a new Cold War dynamic is forming in global trade. While the US-China rivalry does not map perfectly onto the original Cold War, the analogy…
The Japan-US trade deal removes short-term uncertainty but leaves in place high tariffs. The deal imposes a 15% tariff on most Japanese exports, lower than the previously threatened 25% on autos, and includes Japanese commitments to…
